Risk Management, Qualitative and Quantitative Decision Making

This course covers decision making at both the tactical and strategic levels. Expected value and decision trees are covered at the tactical level while strategic alignment and synthesis of selection criteria and rated alternatives are covered at the strategic level.

Major topics are as follows:

– Defining tactical versus strategic objectives
– Identifying and analyzing risks
– Identifying viable innovative alternatives
– Performing life cycle cost and benefits analysis on alternatives
– Proceeding with the best alternative while minimizing risk

The course will improve delegates’ understanding of the management decision making and process. The most popular techniques of management decision making will be discussed. Emphasis will be on the quantitative decision making process. Decision making under certainty, uncertainty, and risk situation will be covered. Other topics to fit the participant’s needs and suggestions will be included as appropriate. Each participant will be given a laptop or tablet with the appropriate software. Case studies will be presented to demonstrate the theory. Practical assignments will be carried out in class and as exercises by the delegates under close supervision of experts. A thorough understanding and appreciation of the decision analysis role in government institutions and private organizations will be demonstrated. Participants will have a chance to pace themselves, and based on their background, will benefit from the course in their own area of activity. This should lead to improved efficiency and effectiveness through better utilization of the information gained in this course as it may apply to the various work environments.

Major topics are as follows:

– Qualitative versus Quantitative Decision making

-DecisionAnalysis

– Brief History of Decision Analysis
– Why study Decision Analysis?
– Normative, Descriptive, and Prescriptive Decision Making
– Decision Making Under Certainty vs. Under Uncertainty

-Introduction to Multi-attribute Decision Making

– Alternatives, Objectives (Tactical vs. Strategic) and Goals
– Expert Choice
– Sensitivity Analysis
– Case Study

-Decision Making Under Uncertainty

– Probability (Risk Profiles)
– Utility (Concave vs. Convex Utility Functions)
– A Measure of Risk Awareness
– Maximization of Expected Utility Principle

-Decision Trees

– Value of Information
– Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
– Evaluation of Various Courses of Action

-Financial Decision Making: Identifying the Best Set of Alternatives While MinimizingRisk

-Resource Allocation Using Expert Choice

-Game theory

-Inventory

-Scheduling

-Transportation and Trans-shipment

-Linear & Dynamic Programming

-Other relevant topics